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terça-feira, 12 de janeiro de 2010

My AVG Drops, What Can I Do?

"My AVG (average clicks by referrals) drop!!!" This is the most common complaint that Neobux users are having right now. You are probably experiencing it, so am I.


It is very frustrating, because AVG essentially equates to the earning power. What happened? It is easier to explain when a couple of referrals slack off for a couple of days, but how do you explain that AVG declines across the board, even for those who have thousands of referrals? Is Neobux finally using bots, as some rumor suggested? But, the Admin denied this theory in the same post and reaffirmed that Neobux only uses real people. Oh, well.



Then what exactly would this drop affect the earning? It is clear that an AVG of 2.5 was a very aggressive assumption in my original Neobux Strategy post, although it was close to 2.5 AVG when I first started. And because of the sharp drop in AVG, I am modifying the earning estimates using the new assumption and incorporating the earning by user him/herself and the cost for recycling.

New Assumptions:

1. AVG = 1.5

2. Recyling rate 10%, i.e., 10% of referrals will be recycled per week

3. Renewal rate 25%, i.e., 25% of referrals will be renewed through Autopay per week.

Without a doubt, basic members will lose money if AVG cannot be maintained above 2.0. So it will not be discussed here. You have to upgrade to gold or ultimate to earn money in Neobux.

Gold Member:
The earning and cost for gold member during the first 20 weeks are shown in the following table and figure.

Revised Earning Simulation for Neobux Gold Member (Table)

Revised Earning Simulation for Neobux Gold Member (Figure)


After you reach 2000 referrals, your cost will be only for referral renewal and recyclcing, which is $112.5 (rent renewal) +$16 (recycling)= $128.5. Your earning will still be $210.7 per week (same as week 20). Therefore, your weekly profit becomes $210.7 - $128.5 = $82.2 per week, or $356 per month! That doesn't sound too bad, right?

Ultimate Member:

For Ultimate member, you can earn as much as $177 per week profit, or $9,200 a year! See the Table and Figure below. I will explain the cost and earning for week 20 as an example.

Week 20 Earning = 4,000*1.5*7*$0.01 (ref clicks) + 15*7*0.02 (self clicks) = $422.1
Week 20 Cost = 4,000*25%*$0.25*90% (referral renewal) + 4,000*10%*$0.05 = $245
Profit = $ 422.1 - $ 245 = $177.1 per week, or $767 per month.

Revised Earning Simulation for Neobux Ultimate Member (Table)


Revised Earning Simulation for Neobux Ultimate Member (Figure)

There you have it. It takes about 20 weeks to break even in the first year. So the total earning for the first year would be (52weeks -20 weeks) * $177 = $5,664

From the second year and after, the earning is expectd to do better because you've already built your team with 4000 referrals. The estimated earning would be (52 * $177) = $9,204

Yes. AVG drops, the earning shrinks. but at least it is still profitable. I can't say that I am extremely happy about the AVG drop. On the flip side, maybe it can help the sustainability of Neobux? I like to hear your opinion.

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